At the end of the second world war, countries across the world started to realign themselves among different groups owing to rebuilding their economies. Some transformed into democracies while others managed through the spread of communism and dictatorial regimes. The world was busy testing the theories of capitalism, socialism, and communism. The nonsensical era of cold war began when capitalists managed democracies started to feel the need to grab hold of the world resources and compete with each other. The past and current geopolitical scenario is largely dictated by the concept of natural resources and where they are mainly located.
The more recent and relevant geopolitical event came in the form of the Arab Spring that started sometime in 2010 in northern Africa but soon spread over the middle-east is the perfect and the most recent example to understand this. The countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen were indeed under dictatorial regimes but had a promising future ahead because of the natural resources they possessed. Except Yemen which is mostly rich in metal and non-metal resources, all other countries had unexplored vast reserves of oil and natural gas. On a side note, Yemen is the warfront for Saudi Arabia and Iran (a typical Shia versus Sunni conflict). And, therefore, understanding the political crisis in Yemen would need a separate discussion. But, talking about other oil and natural gas rich countries, only Tunisia was able to overthrow their dictatorial regime and install democratic institutions. Others resorted back to authoritarian leaderships which didn’t allow much access to the western economies to exploit their natural resources.
Now, let us understand the concept of dealing with dictatorial regimes. There are dictatorial regimes that are friendly to the west and then there are some deemed as inferior and unfriendly. And, by “unfriendly” I mean the political situation in Singapore or UAE is not so different in terms of dictatorial regimes but they have good ties with the western economies. Since the unfriendly dictatorial regimes don’t allow the west to enter the region and exploit their natural resources, the west needs a bigoted approach to deal with them. In order to tap into the unfriendly dictatorial regimes that are largely controlled by the far east requires an understanding of the anti-incumbency factor and economic sanctions. The west uses economic sanctions to destabilize the unfriendly dictatorial regimes and use the anti-incumbency factor through false media narratives to incite the population of these unfriendly regimes.
It’s not that the dictatorial regimes are all good and saints. They have their own vices and lust for power but due to that the anti-incumbency factor is in fact the easiest angle that can be exploited against those unfriendly dictatorial regimes.
The sad reality of Syria and other similar unfriendly dictatorial regimes in the middle-east is that the countries never really thrived even after restoring their authoritarian control. The far east tried and failed over time to restore the economy. The proxy wars and continuous interference from the unfriendly neighbors do account for it as much of the state resources is wasted on controlling them alone. But, this gives enough reason for the population to rise and raise their voices against the shrinking economy. Tapping on such voices for freedom is the ultimate tool that works in favor of the anti-incumbency factor. The civil unrest and coup is, therefore, more likely and easier to incite and execute. Now that the Syria chapter is over for the west, it is up to only them to show their mantle in restoring the war-torn Syria back to its feet. And, if they fail too, the far east will not sit out on this forever.
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